U.S. and world cotton economic outlook : The Magazine Apparel Sourcing
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U.S. and world cotton economic outlook

Posted by administrator on 2010/10/04 · Leave a Comment 

September 2010

 

August 1 marks the beginning of the new crop year with regards to USDA’s statistical reporting.  The new U.S. crop, estimated currently at 18.84 million bales, 6.7 millions bales more than the previous year. U.S. offtake is expected to be 19.1 million bales, which will reduce stocks to 2.7 million bales – a 14% stocks to use ratio – the lowest since the 1994-95 crop year.  USDA has estimated supply and demand forecast for both the U.S. and the world for the 2009-10 crop year.  It is compared with the previous year’s crop in the tables below.

 

U.S. Cotton Fiber Supply/Demand

 

  2009-2010 2010-2011
Beginning Stocks 6.34 3.0
Production 12.19 18.84
Imports 0.00 0.00
Domestic Consumption 3.45 3.6
Exports 12.04 15.5
Ending Stocks 3.0 2.7
Source:  USDA

 

Looking at the world totals, USDA estimates give a crop of 117 million bales, 16 million bales above the 2009 crop of 101 million bales.  Consumption estimates of 120 million bales outpace production by around 3 million bales and reduces estimated ending stocks to 45 million bales – the lowest since the 1994/95 crop.

 

World. Cotton Fiber Supply/Demand

 

  2009-2010 2010-2011
Beginning Stocks 60.44 46.98
Production 101.15 116.95
Consumption 117.20 120.53
Ending Stocks 46.98 45.44

 

China’s cotton production in 2010-11 is estimated at 32.5 million bales, the same as the previous year.  Consumption in China is estimated at 50.0 million bales, up from 2009-10 consumption estimated at 48.50 million bales.

 

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